While SIRI shares sit below $0.50 today as the Dow plummets yet again, the company's newest radio plans are aimed at increasing subscriptions. The new plans are aimed at letting customers have more choice by purchasing programming from both the Sirius side, as well as the XM side.
Looking to boost its revenue and number of subscriptions, Sirius XM Satellite Radio Inc. Thursday announced a range of new programming options that lets subscribers buy programming from both of the recently merged rival services. The "Best of Both" plan actually tips the scales at $16.99/month, which is over $4 higher than the normal $12.95/month subscription. But, that amount does give all XM subscribers to ability to hear Howard Stern while giving Sirius folks the ability to hear Oprah's satellite show.
But the big news is this: a new $6.99/month plan will allow customers to ability to choose 50 "ala carte" channels from either service. That's what many of us having been waiting for: we may only want a few channels but don't want to pay for all of them. If you've been on the satellite radio fence for a while, will you jump on board now for less than $7 a month and get your fix? You won't get Howard or some live sports without additional fees -- and only certain radios are supported -- so be prepared.
On October 24 2003, the Dow closed at 9,582.46. It was the last time the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 9,600. Today, it revisited that territory when it plunged 753 points to 9,572.08, and came within striking distance of its biggest one-day point decline from last week -- 778.
While last week blue chips suffered from fears Congress wouldn't pass the bailout package, this week stocks plunge despite the approved -- and enlarged -- rescue plan. As the global financial crisis deepens, its effects cascade to more areas and over more industries.
Fears of a global economic slowdown further aggravated mood on the Street and markets are seeing stocks in a free-fall. It seems that realization has hit for how long it would take for the bailout to allow some relief, how long it would take for the housing market to recover, while all along economic fundamentals such as the job market are deteriorating.
All 30 of the Dow's components were in the red, with Alcoa (NYSE: AA) taking the dubious title of the Dow stock that's declining most -- down over 12%. Following closely are Citigroup (NYSE: C), American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Boeing (NYSE: BA) -- each down more than 10%.
The Nasdaq composite is meanwhile down nearly 160 points, or over 8%, to 1,787. The S&P 500 down nearly 7.5%, or over 81 points to 1,016.
Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is ditching the warehouse-blue store format that it's grown famous for. Well, not really -- but in some newer stores in Denver, that cheery blue is being supplemented by earth tones and skylights as the largest consumer electronics chain in the U.S. sets its sights on the female demographic. That's right -- the anti-gadget crowd who rolls both eyes when guys start salivating over that 50-inch flat screen television.
Women do have a huge (indirect) impact on consumer electronics sales, although the merchandising most retailers push definitely fits the male buying persona. So, instead of the gray, techie feel where those large flat-panel displays generally reside, Best Buy will be placing some (if not all) of those televisions into staged rooms that look like a set from a typical home. What a better way to visualize that new purchase than by seeing how it looks in the real world, right? Ever sold a home and staged it to sell? Same thing.
Best Buy even asked 40 local female customers to work with its employees to help them form ideas. In other words, merchandise your products in a way that makes them comfortable to be around and use, not as cold hard hunks of steel, plastic and chrome. Serving the needs of women shoppers better is a perfect way to grow sales in this economic state (if that's even doable) -- Best Buy certainly has the right idea here. There's nothing better than involving your customers in decisions that affect how they purchase, right?
With rumors of bankruptcy swirling, the shares of Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: HIG) have plunged over the past few weeks. Hey, if AIG (NYSE: AIG) can implode, why not the others?
Well, the death of Hartford has been greatly exaggerated. Today, the company announced that it received a $2.5 billion capital infusion from Allianz, a mega German financial firm. Despite today's huge drops in the markets, Hartford's shares spiked 16% to $31.88.
The deal is certainly beneficial to Allianz, which gets preferred stock (that converts to common shares at $31 a piece) as well as junior subordinated debentures (there are also warrants to buy $1.75 billion of Hartford at $25.32). Yet, it's still a nice boost for Hartford.
Essentially, Hartford has an extensive portfolio of investments, which have suffered declines (it looks like the recent carnage in hedge funds was a big contributor). In fact, the company believes that there will be a Q3 loss of $8.50 to $8.80 per share.
But, with the capital infusion, Hartford should weather the storm – as well as be positioned to deal with possible credit downgrades (there will be $3.5 billion in excess capital). What's more, there may be opportunities to capitalize on the wreckage. After all, AIG is preparing to sell a large number of assets.
The Wall Street Journal's 'Heard on the Street' column reports (subscription required) on the less than impressive results of recent stock buybacks at public companies.
When a company buys back its stock, it pays cash to shareholders for their shares, and the retires them -- in a market where the vast majority of stocks are trading well of the highs the market reached last year, many recent buybacks are looking poorly-timed. The Journal writes that "General Electric (NYSE: GE) bought back $29 billion dollars of stock, paying an average of $36 and change for each share, according to regulatory filings. This week, it sold $12.2 billion worth for $22.25 each (before fees) and put $3 billion worth of warrants, with the same strike price, in Mr. Buffett's pocket."
The column goes on to argue that dividends "make for better financial discipline and more transparency." Of course that's easy to say right after the market has tanked, but it's a pretty illogical conclusion.
The main argument against dividends is that they're incredibly inefficient, adding an extra 15% cost. A company that pays out a large portion of its income as a dividend is effectively lowering its margins by 15% -- a move that seriously hampers long-term value.
Of course it's unfortunate that GE bought back so much stock only to sell it again at a lower price, but it's a mistake to form general theories about corporate governance based on anecdotal evidence culled from a once-in-a-generation credit meltdown. Given that shareholders of publicly companies presumably feel that their stocks represent a good value, it makes much more sense for corporate brass to hand them more stock with buybacks instead of cash to pay an extra tax on.
Most investors / readers know about inflation -- an increase in the price of a good or service not connected to an improvement.
But fewer know about its flipside -- deflation -- a decline in prices.
Moreover, while inflation is a serious problem -- it erodes purchasing power and makes it hard for businesses to project and plan for costs, moving forward- - deflation is an even bigger menace.
That's because deflation decreases the amount of money flowing to businesses for their products/services, reducing the money needed to keep commercial activity alive and the economy growing.
Deflation: a danger sign
Don't misunderstand: a price cut after a company becomes more-efficient, or implements a 'holiday or promotional' sale, is fine. Deflation is different: it's pervasive price cutting and asset price declines -- falling prices across the product/service spectrum -- usually driven by a lack of consumer / wholesale demand.
Further, if deflation persists it can, you guessed it, lead to lay-offs. Companies and factories with lower revenue and demand for their products / services scale-back production to reduce expenses by laying-off employees. Those laid-off employees then cut expenses as they search for new work assignments by cutting spending, resulting in even lower demand for products, further price cuts, and lower company revenues, and a vicious cycle can ensue.
CME Group (NASDAQ: CME - option chain) is one of the few stocks rising today after an article in the latest Barron's called CME one of its top picks to weather the current storm, because it can generate a lot of cash in a tight credit environment. Even if CME doesn't rise in the next few months, this kind of sentiment could help the stock at least maintain its current price. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CME.
CME opened this morning at $358.00 So far today the stock has hit a low of $353.63 and a high of $384.99. As of 12:35, CME is trading at $371.00, up $8.70 (2.4%). The chart for CME looks neutral and S&P gives CME a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $280 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.5% return in just two weeks as long as CME is above $280 at October expiration. CME would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
CME hasn't been below $282 at all in the past year and has shown support around $350 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CME.
UBS has lowered its forecast for China GDP growth to 8% for 2009. According toReuters, "It is the second time in less than three months that UBS has lowered its forecast for Chinese GDP growth next year."
Since China has been growing at a pace of over 10% a year for most of the last decade, an 8% increase would be quite a come down. It also raises the question of what a recession would look like in China. In the U.S., it is usually defined at two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This is a fancy way of saying the economy is shrinking.
In China, a recession might appear very different. It might only require a moderating of growth to put financial pressure on the middle class. The stock markets in China are already signaling trouble. The Shanghai Composite is off over 60% in less than a year.
If China's expansion slows it will probably be because it is exporting fewer goods to the West where a number of large economies could be suffering and consumers could be in distress. China would not be able to bring as many people into its large cities to work in factories. That, in turn, could cut the purchase rate of items like cars and electronics. With fewer people relocating, the value of real estate could also fall.
In other words, the Chinese economy does not necessarily have to shrink to hurt a lot of businesses and workers in the country. The term "recession" may be relative.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Are you a Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholder? If so, then you're pretty happy about the box-office weekend. According to Boxofficemojo, Disney's Beverly Hills Chihuahua was number one over the past three days at domestic theaters. It is estimated to have grossed $29 million. That number may change when final stats are released later on, but it won't change the ranking, since the movie in second place, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Eagle Eye, grossed around $17.7 million.
Eye was last week's number-one film, and I have to say, I thought the thriller would remain in the top position this week. That's how Hollywood works, though. You're on top one minute, and then the next minute, you're on the way down.
Movies are a very risky business, and I have been critical of how Disney manages its movie operations. I am a shareholder, and I care about how much capital is put at risk on each project and how the deals are structured. Are they structured with the shareholder in mind, or are they tipped toward the pampered stars who demand big percentages of the grosses while not taking on any risk?
The frontal assault to check the financial crisis and stem rising fear in credit markets has begun.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Monday doubled its Term Auction Facilities - - its short-term loans provided to banks - - to as much as $900 billion.
"The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,'' the central bank said. The Fed also will begin paying interest on bank reserves.
The Fed added that it and the U.S. Treasury are "consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets."
As part of the action, The Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.
The Federal Reserve has had a large role in determining which banks and brokerage firms stayed in business. Now it may have to make a similar set of decisions about big corporations.
According toBloomberg, "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may find the next fronts of the financial crisis to be just as chilling as last month's downfall of Wall Street titans: its spread to corporate America and state and local government."
Large companies including Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) are having to pay huge premiums for debt or tap lines of credit. The Fed has the ability to lend cash to non-financial companies, but the dilemma raises the old question of which firms will make it and which will not. It is similar to the decisions it made with financial firms like Bear Stearns.
It is clear that there is not enough money to go around as hundreds of fairly sizable corporations cannot get loans. The Fed is unlikely to have the capital to help them all.
That means there will have to be some litmus test for who is helped like corporate revenue, number of employees, whether the company is in a strategic industry like defense, and so on.
Which would you save?
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
So far, there's little indication the financial crisis is subsiding.
The euro and British pound fell against the dollar, and money market rates climbed early Monday in Europe as banks hoarded cash.
The euro and British pound fell about 1 cent versus the dollar to $1.3610 and $1.7568, respectively, early Monday as traders sensed both the European Central Bank and Bank of England, along with national governments, will have to take monetary and policy actions to address the crisis.
The London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR -- the rate banks charge each other for overnight dollar loan, increased 37 basis points to 2.37%. The Euribor, a similar rate for the euro, rose 1 basis point to 5.35%, an all-time high.
Currency Trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Monday, currency, credit and stock markets in Europe all indicate the financial crisis will impact many of the economies in the euro zone.
"Germany's decision to guarantee all private German bank accounts kind of spooked the currency market, and drove the euro and pound lower. It's a good, defensive action, but it prompted people to ask 'how deep is the problem in Europe?'" Resnick said. "We're going to need more action to address the crisis from both the European Union and the central banks of Europe to boost liquidity."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 336.43 points, or 3.26%, to below 10,000 -- 9988.95 -- for the first time in four years, since Oct. 29, 2004. Similarly, the S&P 500 dropped 3.66% and the Nasdaq declined 3.97%. As investors looked for safety they sold stocks and piled into government bonds.
As expected, Wall Street joined a global selloff today as the financial crisis seemed to have deepened, especially in Europe. In addition, fears of a global economic slowdown dampened investors mood further. The expected boost from the $700 billion bailout plan approved Friday was non-existent as the weekend was full of news from Europe regarding the cascading financial crisis.
The financial crisis and the economic slowdown are now hitting the next set of stocks like Aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) -- down about 8% -- or Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) -- down over 5% -- both companies expected to have difficulties either accessing funds or suffer from the global economic slowdown, or both. News of eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) -- down 5.5% -- laying off over 1,000 employees didn't help, only served as a reminder of the bad employment numbers from Friday and the expected worsening conditions in the jobs market.
One of the great things about a global financial collapse is that economic activity slows down so much that people use less oil. And one of the more interesting aspects of this collapse is that despite the terrible problems we face in the U.S., investors are flocking to the dollar as a symbol of permanence in a turbulent world. Since oil is traded in dollars, the combination of a stronger dollar and weaker demand leads to a lower price.
For example, today oil went as low as $86.36 -- which is 41% below its July peak of $147. Meanwhile, the dollar hit a 13-month high of $1.36 to the Euro -- that's 15% stronger than the $1.60 it traded at this summer. That may be because the U.S. passed its $810 billion bailout plan and Europe has not yet figured out what it will do to deal with its financial crisis. Not to worry, oil is still 260% higher than the $24 it traded at in January 2001 and the dollar has lost 48% of its value of $0.92 to the Euro at which it traded back then.
Where do we go from here? That depends on two variables: how much oil-producing nations cut back on production and how the dollar performs relative to other currencies as this global financial crisis unfolds. If oil-producing nations cut back on production, prices will rise as long as the supply contraction matches the decline in demand. And as long as the world perceives that the U.S. is the world's financial safe haven -- the dollar could strengthen. And that would push oil prices lower.
In a nutshell, oil prices will keep dropping unless oil producing nations drastically slash production and the dollar plunges.
According to a report from the 451 Group, the third quarter was horrible for tech M&A. With the financial crisis, it's tough to get buyers interested in deals.
But, today we got some relief; that is, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) agreed to shell out $820 million in cash for Bill Me Later. In fact, the company also paid $390 million for bilbasen.dk, which is a leading classifieds operator in Denmark.
At the same time, eBay plans to slash 10% of the workforce (amounting to about 1,000 employees). With an impending global recession, the environment is likely to be pretty bad for consumer platforms.
Thus, with the Bill Me Later transaction, there may be some traction -- especially with the PayPal business. But again, eBay will need to demonstrate skill with integration (which can be particularly tough in the tech world). Besides, eBay's M&A track record has been spotty, specially since its Skype deal.
Bill Me Later will certainly be costly. While the company is growing quickly, its revenue is only $150 million. Besides, the deal will dilute eBay's 2009 earnings by 6 cents to 13 cents per share. Also, might the credit crunch result in some problems for Bill Me Later?
More importantly, eBay announced that revenue will be at the low end of its forecast for Q3. In other words, the company realizes it needs to make some big moves to keep up the momentum.