rtp

We all got used to hearing about peak oil, especially after a whistleblower recently alleged that the International Energy Agency has downplayed a looming oil shortage to appease the U.S. and prevent panic buying. What we haven't heard much about is the looming uranium shortage. Last week, Michael Dittmar, from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, said that the world is running out of uranium and nobody seems to have noticed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency forecast last year said that power generated from nuclear plants could double by 2030 as governments look to alternative energy sources. So while there is great investment in nuclear power, uranium is not plentiful.

Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) was broadly lower Wednesday after mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) boosted its stake in the company from 9.9% to 19.7%. Rio Tinto raised its interest in Ivanhoe by purchasing 46.3 million common shares for $388 million. The proceeds will be used to help build and commission Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia.

Thanks to the capital infusion, Ivanhoe now has roughly $610 million in cash on its balance sheet. However, traders are hardly cheering the news -- perhaps because Rio Tinto snapped up the stock at a bargain price of $8.38 per share, representing a steep discount to Tuesday's closing price of $11.51.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $265 from $170, citing higher iPhone expectations, new partnerships, and likely upward revisions to Street estimates driven by gross margins.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm views a possible deal between end General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal positively, as it thinks NBC will provide higher-margin growth for Comcast.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Michael Baker (AMEX: BKR) to Buy from Neutral after the company completed the sale of its Energy business. The firm raised its target on shares to $46 from $40.
• Jefferies assumed coverage of Endo Pharma (NASDAQ: ENDP) and upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. The firm cites valuation, a strong base business, and solid cash flow for the upgrade, and has a $30 target price on shares.
• Marten Transport (NASDAQ: MRTN) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Early this morning, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) found itself facing new allegations in the arrest of some of its employees in China. RTP is accused of overcharging Chinese steel mills by $100 million during the past six years, and the latest accusations cover the sale of iron ore.

To catch you up on the situation between RTP and the Chinese government, back in early July, RTP was accused of bribing officials and four of its employees were detained by authorities in Shanghai on suspicion of stealing state secrets. The allegations contended that the four employees bribed executives from 16 of China's major steel mills in order to obtain industry information.

U.S. stock futures declined somewhat Monday morning, indicating what could be a small pullback following the recent four-week surge that culminated in Friday's positive reaction to a better-than-expected jobs report. With stocks at nine- to ten-months high, investors are set to take some profit.

Stocks had another strong performance last week -- the S&P 500 was up 2.3%, the Dow industrials were up 2.2% and the Nasdaq up 1.1% -- and after Friday the jobs report showed 247,000 jobs were lost in July and that unemployment declined to 9.4%, some economists said the recession may be over soon.

Analyst upgrades:

• JPMorgan upgraded Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) to Overweight from Underweight to reflect performance and sales improvements, as well as benefits from the weakening U.S. dollar. The firm has a $94 target on the stock.
• Oppenheimer upgraded FormFactor (NASDAQ: FORM) to Outperform from Perform after channel checks indicated orders are recovering. The firm raised its target on shares to $30 from $22.
• KeyBanc upgraded Oshkosh (NYSE: OSK) to Buy from Hold citing the company's MRAP-ATV contract win, which they view as a "game changer." The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
• Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Ternium (NYSE: TX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Cathay General (NASDAQ: CATY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley.

When oil lost almost $3 a barrel, stock futures indicated a lower opening for today. Just shy of 5 AM, S&P 500, Down Jones, and Nasdaq 100 futures were all off 0.9%. The drop in oil to $64 a barrel has called into question any projections of a quick economic recovery -- as if high unemployment weren't enough. The Monday after any long weekend is hard, and this one's going to hurt.

The direction in which futures are pointing continues Thursday's equity declines in the United States, bringing the S&P 500 its third consecutive weekly loss. For the day, it lost 2.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.63% of its value, with the Nasdaq Composite Index giving up 2.67%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is down 5.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.8%.

It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.

Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP - option chain) stock is declining this morning on reports that Chinese authorities could use a new antitrust law to block the company's planned joint venture with BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP). If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on RTP.

This morning, RTP opened at $193.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $188.52 and a high of $194.00. As of 11:45, RTP is trading at $190.15, down $14.29 (-7.0%). The chart for RTP looks neutral and S&P gives RTP a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

It was certainly a big-time bet: Chinalco agreed to invest a whopping $19.5 billion in Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), which is the #3 ore miner. However, over the past couple months, there was some doubt as to whether this transaction would come to fruition.

Well, this week, we got an answer. That is, Rio decided to dump Chinalco and instead form a joint venture (JV) with BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), which is the #2 player in the global ore industry (keep in mind that both firms had a buyout deal that blew up last year).

Now, the JV has lots of merit. For example, there will be huge cost synergies, which could amount to more than $10 billion.

Nucor (NYSE: NUE - option chain) shares are rising today after iron-ore miner Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) agreed to cut its iron ore prices for Japan's Nippon Steel Corp by more than 30%. The steelmakers have already been driven lower as demand for their product has slowed, but now they are less likely to be charged boom-time prices for their raw materials on top of that. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NUE.

NUE opened this morning at $39.44. So far today the stock has hit a low of $39.14 and a high of $41.41. As of 11:35, NUE is trading at $41.25 up 1.16 (2.9%). The chart for NUE looks bearish and S&P gives NUE a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley said Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) capital needs are largely known and shares are trading "cheaply despite reduced downside risk." The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Underweight and raised the price target to $25 from $16. Shares were also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird citing manageable capital needs and attractive risk/reward.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as it views the stock as inexpensive despite the recent rally. The firm has an $8 target on the stock.
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Buy from Neutral as it believes fewer hedging losses could bring upside over the next few quarters.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at Barclays.
  
• EnerNOC (NASDAQ: ENOC) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.
  
• Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Teck Cominco (NYSE: TCK) closed at $14.04. TCK, a metals producer, announced on May 5 it issued $4.255 billion in long term bonds. TCK June and August option implied volatility of 84 is below its 26-week average of 111, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) closed at $183.66. RTP, the world's third-largest mining company, was upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight at Barclays Capital. RTP June option implied volatility of 70 is below its 26-week average of 85, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded MF Global (NYSE: MF) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the company's liquidity position has improved and that it is well positioned to take market share. The firm raised its target on shares to $9.
  
• UBS upgraded Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $33 from $28 citing better than expected performance in Macau, valuation, and comfort with the balance sheet.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Brandywine Realty (NYSE: BDN) to Buy from Hold on valuation and believes progress on asset sales or financing could drive significant upside. The firm keeps a $4.50 price target on BDN.
• Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) was lifted to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale.
  
• Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC) was upgraded at Banc of America/Merrill to Buy from Underperform.