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Consumer goods to gain 5% next year, according to Fitch

The rest of the world is going to help U.S. consumer product manufacturers next year. Look for international growth to push the likes of Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Avon (AVP) and Clorox (CLX) higher in 2010, according to Fitch Ratings. In an interview with Reuters, a director gave the Fitch's outlook for consumer goods.

The household and personal care segments increased revenue every year from 2003 to 2008. So, 2009 was but a bump in the road. Even in a recession, you need toilet paper and shampoo, so expect the spending to come back.

Continue reading Consumer goods to gain 5% next year, according to Fitch

New U.S. export: labor

Now that it's reached 10.2%, the unemployment rate is higher than it's been in 26 years. That puts plenty of people on the hunt for work, especially since the unemployment rate doesn't reflect everyone who's been affected by the recession, such as those who have been unemployed too long or who are underemployed. Lacking alternatives at home, more Americans are heading overseas to find their fortunes weather the storm.

The number of people looking for international work through Manpower Inc. (MAN), the largest staffing firm in the country, has increased over the past six months. Half a year ago, Jeff Joerres, the company CEO, said that only a few dozen were looking for work outside the U.S. Now, it's up to 500. He tells USA Today, "It is a phenomenon we haven't had before."

Continue reading New U.S. export: labor

Central Banks lead a shift away from the dollar

The US dollar is down 20% since 2002 on a trade weighted basis. Other world economies like China are dynamic, with growth rates of 8 and 9%. With that kind of clout, countries like China, India and Brazil, can choose where to place their reserves.

Slowly, developing countries are shifting their reserves away from the dollar into the euro and yen. Neil Mellor, strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE: BK), which has some $20 trillion dollars in assets under custody said: "I don't think there will be an imminent move, but it is quite clear there's a plan to shift reserves to a more balanced portfolio."

Barclays Capital Research reported that central banks placed 63% of new cash in non US currencies between April and July.

Continue reading Central Banks lead a shift away from the dollar

Are stocks about to get routed?

Bloomberg News took a recent poll of its subscribers. Here are some highlights of the survey:

  • Only 31% of investors saw investment opportunities in the stock market, down from 35% in the July survey.
  • Worldwide, investors see the U.S. as the weakest link in the world economy. Twenty five percent of respondents see an unemployment rate of 11% in the U.S. next year.
  • Respondents see China and India as the most promising markets and commodities are the asset of choice.
  • Real Estate and bonds are out of favor, with 40% saying that bonds will have the worst returns over the next year.

Continue reading Are stocks about to get routed?

Vale S.A. (VALE): Mining for value in iron ore

"We're adding Brazil's Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE), the world's leading iron ore producer, to our model growth portfolio," says growth stock expert Stephen Leeb.

In his The Complete Investor, he explains, "This outstanding company offers investors simultaneous stakes in two key areas: iron ore-a commodity essential to any and all infrastructure projects-and Brazil's appreciating currency, the real.

"When it comes to understanding the importance of a commodity such as iron ore, the tale starts with China. Even with China's GDP growth again approaching double digits, the Chinese government continues to aggressively promote growth, offering consumers incentives to buy cars and investing in infrastructure, from roads to bridges to sewers to energy plants.

Continue reading Vale S.A. (VALE): Mining for value in iron ore

ETF expert bets on Brazil

"Brazil has long been our favorite of the BRIC countries," says Carl Delfeld. In his Chartwell Global Wealth Letter, the advisor looks at two favored Brazilian equity ETFs.

"Brazil seems to have confounded its critics, who view it as a boom and bust economy; the country has been upgraded to investment grade status by Moody's.

"The US ratings agency cited the resilience of the Brazilian economy to the financial crisis for the upgrade of its sovereign debt ratings one notch to Baa3, its lowest investment grade rating.

"This elevation of quality is well earned after years of reform in the country that led to lower inflation and a stronger currency as well as lower levels of government debt.

Continue reading ETF expert bets on Brazil

Bull markets in 'soft' commodities to hike coffee, orange juice prices

Last year's bull run in commodities was led mainly by oil, grains and gold. This year we've had spectacular bull runs in the "soft" commodities, which include mainly, coffee, tea, cocoa, sugar and orange juice.

Tea is at an all-time high; cocoa is at a 30-year high; and sugar is at a 28.5-year high. Orange juice reached its highest price in 15 months. Tea prices for the best quality broken pekoe, or BP1, surged to a record $5.02 a kilogram, up 70% since January.

Continue reading Bull markets in 'soft' commodities to hike coffee, orange juice prices

Homebuilding in Brazil: 'Hot sector in hot market'

"Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA) is a bet on Brazil; the company is the country's second-largest homebuilder," says international investing expert Nicholas Vardy.

In his The Global Bull Market Alert, he adds, "Brazilian homebuilders are a red-hot sector in a red-hot market. Brazil is one of the strongest-performing global markets this year, and one that you should definitely have exposure to in the final quarter of 2009.

"Brazilian homebuilders are a red-hot sector in a red-hot market. Stocks in this sector have already doubled their share prices this year as policy makers cut interest rates to a record low and the government unveiled a 34 billion real ($18.8 billion) housing stimulus plan.

Continue reading Homebuilding in Brazil: 'Hot sector in hot market'

Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

The clean technology wave just got a little bigger. This tends to be a side-effect of interest from billionaire investor George Soros. And, as usual, it's more than just money; it's more than just a return. Soros, yet again, is trying to save the world. Interestingly, the bold move was announced at a meeting on climate change sponsored by Project Syndicate – an international association consisting of 430 newspapers from 150 countries (and thus with clear ties to the past, rather than future).

The investor and founder of Soros Fund Management LLC is planning to put $1 billion into clean-tech opportunities using what he calls "rather stringent criteria," which involves being "profitable but should also actually make a contribution to solving the problem [i.e., of clean technology adoption and proliferation]." Soros didn't provide any other details on the nature or scope of his investments.

Continue reading Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

Memo to Brazil, emerging markets: Congrats on Olympics -- now buy stuff!

It was an historic day when Rio de Janeiro was chosen as host for the 2016 Summer Olympic games -- the first emerging market ever to host the games.

It many ways it marked a formal "coming out" party, if you will, for emerging markets. It was a statement -- a confirmation -- of the the developing world's improved status in the early globalization era. It said, "We've arrived."

Continue reading Memo to Brazil, emerging markets: Congrats on Olympics -- now buy stuff!

Can you cut your health care costs 90% and get a free vacation?

President Obama started an intense debate in recent months about national health care. People are concerned about how to pay for the high cost of health care in America and feel it is just too expensive. There has to be a better way!

I like oranges and I grew up in Wisconsin, but in January oranges do not grow very well in Wisconsin. I don't know why -- I am not a horticulturalist -- but maybe it's the lack of sunlight, hard frozen tundra, blowing snow or temperatures of 25 below zero. We could spend a long time pointlessly debating the actual reason.

Continue reading Can you cut your health care costs 90% and get a free vacation?

The G-20 meets in Pittsburgh, and expectations are low

The G-20 is meeting again, this time in Pittsburgh, and as is so often the case when the world's industrial powers gather, the operative phrase is 'lower your expectations.'

What can investors look for? Well, one thing investors should not look for is any G-20 type of action on banker compensation/bonuses, other than a call for each nation, 'to do more to ensure that constructive incentives are in place' to prevent a repeat of the lending practices/perverse incentives that helped trigger the global financial crisis. There is support for compensation caps in Europe (except Germany); however, the United States and United Kingdom oppose them, so the issue is a non-starter.

Continue reading The G-20 meets in Pittsburgh, and expectations are low

Vivendi calls up a deal in Brazil

In the emerging markets, a key to growth is mobile. And, this is revving up M&A activity for the major operators, who are trying to grab marketshare.

This is certainly the case with Vivendi. Recently, the company's chief -- Jean-Bernard Levy -- said he has a credit line of close to $9 billion to do deals.

Well, he hasn't wasted much time. Late yesterday, Vivendi announced a buyout bid for GVT SA, which is a fixed-line phone company in Brazil. The transaction comes to about $3 billion (or a 16% premium to the current stock price).

Continue reading Vivendi calls up a deal in Brazil

Are sugar prices headed for a fall?

A few weeks ago, we heard reports that sugar prices would rise because of weather conditions and supply/demand factors. Sugar prices recently hit a 28-year high, trading at 23 cents per pound.

New data suggests that sugar prices may drop as much as 24%, according to Craig Ruffolo of McKeany Falvel company. He says that markets are already anticipating lower prices well before the next Brazilian harvest.

Continue reading Are sugar prices headed for a fall?

Vardy's view: Bet on emerging markets small caps

"Our latest pick combines two highly profitable asset classes, small caps and emerging markets," says Nicholas Vardy. In The Global Bull Market Alert, he an emerging markets ETF.

"The SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF (NYSE: EWX) offers you access to small caps in emerging markets that otherwise would be off limits.

"While some of the larger emerging market stocks trade in the United States, these smaller players never will.

"In addition, it's well known that U.S. small caps tend to outperform large caps over the long run. Their small size makes them nimble and quicker to react to changing market conditions.

Continue reading Vardy's view: Bet on emerging markets small caps

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:29 PM

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