This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.
Which stocks would benefit from a victory by either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama? To help investors sort through the sectors and stocks best positioned to benefit in a post-election environment, we posed this question to some of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Importantly, this is not a partisan report; each participating advisor has provided a favorite stock for both candidates, focused not on political preferences but unbiased stock analysis. Below we feature those stocks and ETFs that the advisors believe will be the winners depending on which candidate prevails.
One might think that with the financial system in the world's largest economy in need of additional liquidity to avert a financial panic, foreign investors would be preparing similar fixes at home and/or standing at the ready to assist the United States, if needed.
Not quite.
Although central banks around the world have coordinated policies and cooperated fully, leaders of foreign governments balked at similar bailout plans, and many foreign sovereign investors also remain on the sidelines, The Washington Postreported Thursday.
While policy makers in Europe and Latin American agree that the global financial system is facing its greatest stress and threat since the period up to and after the 1929 stock market crash, they saw little need - - so far - - for major rescue packages in their own countries, The Postreported. Further, sovereign wealth funds, likewise, showed little interest in stepping up to the plate.
The world: well-capitalized spectators
Economist David H. Wang said Britain has cooperated fully, France has proposed a special G-8 summit to deal with the financial crisis, and Russia has acted to stabilize its stock and credit markets, but the rest-of-the-world is "watching the events as they unfold."
Wang said three factors are at work in the rest-of-the-world's cautious stance: national interest, a shift in the geopolitical balance of power, and posturing.
"Regrettably, but predictably, much of the world has turned inward and chosen to focus on its own domestic banks and institutions. There's also the belief, in nations like Brazil and in Middle Eastern economies, that they're more-insulated from the crisis, due to expanded non-U.S. trade relationships and the ability to undertake financial transactions and store value in other currencies, such as the euro," Wang said. "They also see the financial crisis in the context of a transition to a multi-polar financial world, from one dominated by the United States."
"Crude oil remains deeply oversold on an intermediate-term basis, suggesting a rally sometime in the early fall," says Dennis Slothower.
The editor of Stealth Stocks looks to Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) as his latest "stock of the month." Here's his review of the Brazilian firm that is now the world's 8th-largest oil company.
"The founding of Petrobras was authorized in October 1953, with the objective of executing, on behalf of the federal government, the activities of the oil sector in Brazil.
"Over the past five decades or so, the company has become the country's leader in the distribution of oil products, an activity not covered by the government monopoly, and today it is internationally acknowledged as the eighth-largest oil company in the world.
"Leading the sector in the development of one of the most advanced deepwater and ultra-deepwater technologies for oil production, PBR was twice (in 1992 and 2001) awarded the Offshore Technology Company (OTC) prize, the most important award in the sector.
The upside: the non-petroleum trade deficit in goods declined 9.8% to $29.6 billion -- its lowest level in six years, the Commerce Department said.
Almost all of July's trade deficit increase was due to oil. So, does the July trade statistic constitute a modest victory, or something less?
"It means the nation's trade deficit picture is improving, just as long as we don't use any oil," economist Peter Dawson said. "Kidding aside, the non-oil component of the trade deficit continues to improve, and I'm emphasizing that dimension. The oil import component should decrease provided oil prices continue to moderate and Americans continue to cutback gasoline use, so the trend line at least through Q4 is a good one for the trade deficit."
Overall in July, imports rose 3.9% to $230.3 billion, and exports increased 3.3% to $168.1 billion. Strong performance areas for exports included airplanes, machinery, auto parts, computers and industrial materials.
I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Paul Goodwin, Emerging Markets Specialist and Analyst, Cabot Heritage Corporation. Paul thinks there may be bargains in battered emerging markets. Q. Emerging markets have been beaten up and the Russia/Georgia conflict, unfortunately, points out one of the problems with investing internationally -- uncertainty created by government and political actions. How can investors protect their portfolios?
A. Every investor should follow the usual advice -- diversify your portfolio among different asset classes, including bonds, value stocks, income stocks, and growth stocks. Avoid overexposure to any one sector or industry, no matter how hot.
But we follow two additional important rules: 1) Use a strict loss limit of 15% (in difficult markets) or 20% (in supportive markets); and 2) always be prepared to exit the equity markets and go to cash when the general trend of the market is against you.
With its results benefiting from high gas prices and a renewed consumer focus on bargains, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is looking more relevant than it has in years. The company is also redoubling its efforts to make inroads overseas.
Craig Herkert, president and CEO of Wal-Mart's America's division, met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the company released a statement saying that it would seek to open 80 to 90 new stores and that "The retailer will make its largest investment yet in the country since it started operating in Brazil fourteen years ago."
This seems like a prudent investment in a region where Wal-Mart has enjoyed considerable success. Eight of the 12 foreign countries Wal-Mart has operations in are in Latin America, and the company's concept appears to work there. In other foreign markets, most notably Germany, Wal-Mart's fixation on low prices has met with failure. The developing world likely represents Wal-Mart's best opportunity for long-term growth.
"For U.S. investors looking to broaden their horizons, closed-end funds offer an easy way to gain exposure to a diverse mix of foreign stocks without venturing beyond U.S.-based stock exchanges.
"Not only that, they often provide access to stocks that don't trade in the U.S. -- including companies that only institutional investors (such as a fund manager) can buy.
"But these funds offer a bonus that mutual funds don't: in some cases you can purchase them at a discount to their net asset value (NAV) -- the underlying value of the fund's portfolio.
"That's because closed-end funds trade on the major stock exchanges, just like stocks. Their prices are determined by investor sentiment and supply and demand, in addition to the value of the investments they hold.
"Led by Brett Diment, the management team at Aberdeen Asset Management -- which specializes in emerging markets -- has assembled a portfolio that exposes investors to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world: Brazil, Mexico, China, India, Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela are among the fund's top holdings.
"The acronym 'BRIC-standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China-is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world.
"But we're herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'-standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada.
"That's because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuels and other natural products. In a world where resource shortages will only get worse, these countries will stand out from the pack.
"Don't get us wrong. China and India remain the largest and fastest growing emerging economies and still face exceptional futures.
"But their major resources are cheap labor, which will become less cheap as their economies keep growing. Indeed, labor costs in these countries already have begun to rise relative to the rest of the world.
"Meanwhile, continued gains in commodities mean that Australia and Canada are gaining relative to the rest of the world. It's hard to overstate just how important relative resource independence is in a world where resources are becoming ever more scarce and expensive.
The list of reasons that oil is trading near $150 a barrel gets longer by the day: speculation, greed at OPEC member countries, rising consumption in India and China and so on.
Perhaps the most worrisome aspect of oil prices is supply interruptions in major exporting nations. Worries about Nigeria and Iran have helped move the cost of crude up over the last few months. Now another big threat can be put on that list.
Oil workers at Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company, have gone out on strike. Brazil is a modestly important supplier of crude, but with the recent discovery of large off-shore deposits, its role is likely to grow.
According to Bloomberg, the strike "may cut Brazilian daily oil output by more than half."
The strike raises two problems, one short term. The psychology of oil prices is so fragile now that even rumors of supply interruptions push crude up. The other, more important problem, is in the future. Brazil's new and significant oil reserves will make the world more dependent on the country for crude. If the workers can strike now to get higher wages, they can strike later. That puts Brazil's output at a level of permanent risk.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Oil rose more than $4 a barrel early Friday morning to a record $145.98 on concerns that Israel may be preparing to attack Iran and on supply concerns in Nigeria and Brazil. [Update: Oil prices continued to climb, reaching a record of $147.03 a barrel, and this may not be the last update.]
Oil came within a whisker of $146 per barrel after Israeli fighter jets reportedly practiced over Iraq according to Iraqi and Iranian sources. This, however, was enough to increase speculation among traders that Israel is preparing to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
The United States and the European Union want Iran to end uranium enrichment, a technology that would give Iran the materials needed to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran says it wants the nuclear technology solely to produce electricity for civilian use. If one discounts oil sands, Iran has the world's second largest proved oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia.
Oil was also fanned higher by threats of additional Nigerian civil unrest and Brazilian oil union's plan to start a 5-day strike, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
The other major energy commodities, likewise, also jumped in early Friday morning trading. Heating oil surged 8 cents to $4.12 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 6 cents to $357 per gallon, and natural gas jumped 16 cents to $12.53 per million BTUs.
"In general, investors are still seeing selloffs as buying opportunities even though the majority of stocks are in a bear market. We are not sure how long this can continue.
"Our 'Crazy Investor Index' does not yet show the type of extreme fear that is typical at a bottom, so it will probably mill around in short-term rallies and selloffs until something motivates them to panic simultaneously.
"In the meantime, we prefer to buy excellent companies just as the herd decides to stampede. And while our portfolio is now slightly net short we are adding one new long position: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., often referred to as Petrobras.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) Wednesday increased its 20-year forecast for global commercial jetliner deliveries for the sector by 2.8%, forecasting that demand for fuel-efficient replacement aircraft will outweigh capacity reductions by U.S. carriers.
Encompassing all airline manufacturers in the sector, Boeing now expects a market for 29,400 new commercial airplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2027, up 2.8% from its previous estimate of 28,600. Boeing added that the forecast factors-in the sector's near-term challenges, including a slowing global economy, surging fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and a concerted action by airlines to lower costs.
Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) gained 25 cents to $66.18 on the news in Wednesday afternoon trading, despite a 131-point market sell-off in the DJIA.
Boeing added that single-aisle airplanes will make up the bulk of the sector's deliveries during the next 20 years. Strong domestic and intra-regional air travel growth in emerging Asia-Pacific markets, along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide, is driving demand in this segment, the company said. Orders from Asia will comprise 31% of the deliveries; North America, 29%; and Europe/Asia, 27%.
Profit From the Fantastic Four Take a look at these 26 stocks, funds and exchange-traded funds that key in on the fast-growing BRIC nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. Profit From the Fantastic Four - Kiplinger.com
Southwest's Seven Secrets for Success By some estimates, the country's major carriers have consumed perhaps $100 billion in capital during the past decade, but Southwest Airlines continues to be profitable. It's been in the black for 33 consecutive years and, last week, for the 127th consecutive quarter. While its competitors are shrinking, Southwest will add a handful of flights this fall. What does Southwest know that no one else in airlines does? It keeps things simple and consistent, which drives costs down, maximizes productive assets, and helps manage customer expectations. Why Southwest Succeeds - Portfolio.com
Readers of this space know that one argument I forward here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.
(Note: Petroleo's shares split 2-for-1 in May 2008.)
Analysts really like PBR's proved reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and astounding 5,870 gasoline stations. Further, analysts see 2008 production rising about 11-14%. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for PBR are $4.91/$5.03.
The risks? Analysts have their eye on PBR's operating costs. Also, PBR's concentration in Brazil means a downturn in that country's economy will hurt results.
Stock Analysis: Petroleo Brasileiro is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from PBR's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $78.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
For the first time ever, the number of millionaires in the world broke through the 10 million mark last year. All said and done, the total number of people who can claim to have $1 million in the bank grew to around 10.1 million people, and on average, these lucky few boast around $4 million in net worth.
While the number of people in the "millionaires club" is definitely impressive, they still do not have to worry about the clout of their $1 million claims being diluted just yet. Ten million people may sound like a lot, but when you consider the world's total population is currently running at around 6.7 billion, you find that the percentage of all people on the planet who can claim to have $1 million is less than 0.2%. So don't feel too bad if you are not part of the club just yet.
As in the past, the majority of millionaires have an American address, with one out of every three millionaires being American. But there are a few other areas of the world where growth is out-pacing the United States. Developing economies in India, China and Brazil resulted in huge growth in those countries, especially in India, where the number of millionaires rose by about 23% last year alone.
With its 
For the first time ever, the number of millionaires in the world 
Big Losers: 15 large stocks that have plummeted
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Closing Bell: The meltdown that almost was . . . NCC, HIG, SAP, DNDN
